Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability

Publié le 1 Octobre 2019
Mis à jour le 22 février 2020

An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010-2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (-0.92%p/°C) and Australia (-0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.

Auteur : Lee Jae Young, Kim Ho, Gasparrini Antonio, Armstrong Ben, Bell Michelle L, Sera Francesco, Lavigne Eric, Abrutzky Rosana, Tong Shilu, Coelho Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio, Saldiva Paulo Hilario Nascimento, Correa Patricia Matus, Ortega Nicolas Valdes, Kan Haidong, Garcia Samuel Osorio, Kyselý Jan, Urbanp Aleš, Orru Hans, Indermitte Ene, Jaakkola Jouni J.K, Ryti Niilo R.I, Pascal Mathilde, Goodman Patrick G, Zeka Ariana, Michelozzi Paola, Scortichini Matteo, Hashizume Masahiro, Honda Yasushi, Hurtado Magali, Cruz Julio, Seposo Xerxes, Nunes Baltazar, Teixeira João Paulo, Tobias Aurelio, Íñiguez Carmen, Forsberg Bertil, Åström Christofer, Vicedo-Cabrera Ana Maria, Ragettli Martina S, Guo Yue-Liang Leon, Chen Bing-Yu, Zanobetti Antonella, Schwartz Joel, Dang Tran Ngoc, Do Van Dung, Mayvaneh Fetemeh, Overcenco Ala, Li Shanshan, Guo Yuming
Environment International, 2019, vol. 131, p. 1-11